Inflation Trend vs. Federal Reserve Target

Is inflation converging toward the Federal Reserve's 2% long-run target?

Updated MonthlyAs of 2026-06-01High data quality

Historical Trend

Data sourced from official government APIs

What It Measures

The year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, compared against the Federal Reserve's stated long-run inflation target of 2%. Tracks both headline and core measures.

Formula

YoY Inflation = ((Current Period Index − Prior Year Index) ÷ Prior Year Index) × 100

Why It Matters

Sustained inflation above target erodes household purchasing power and signals potential monetary policy tightening. Deflation or persistent undershoot can suppress economic activity. This KPI directly affects wages, interest rates, consumer sentiment, and government debt service costs.

Data Caveats

CPI-U and PCE use different methodologies and weights; the Fed formally targets PCE.
Shelter costs lag actual market rents by 12–18 months due to BLS methodology.
"Headline" vs. "core" (ex-food and energy) can diverge substantially during supply shocks.
Regional variation can be significant; national averages mask local cost-of-living differences.

Drill-Down Options

CPI-U vs. Core CPI
PCE vs. Core PCE
Category breakdown (food, energy, shelter)
Metropolitan area CPI
Income quintile impact estimates

Suggested Dashboard Layout

Example Visualization

Dual-line area chart showing CPI-U and Core PCE over time, with a horizontal reference line at 2% target. Shaded band indicating tolerance range. Secondary panel shows category contributions.

Suggested Chart Types

Line ChartArea Chart

Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate

How many jobs is the U.S. economy adding or shedding each month?

187K

K jobs/month

vs. prior month

Updated MonthlyHigh data quality

🏛Executive BranchFiscal Management

National Debt Growth Rate

At what rate is the federal debt growing relative to GDP?

98.2%

% of GDP

vs. prior year

Updated QuarterlyHigh data quality